In a drive to improve the care of patients suffering from long-term illnesses, NHS Scotland has embarked on an innovative research project with partners Trustmarque and KenSci, to create a trial risk prediction platform which aims to help predict pulmonary risk and improve care for patients suffering from Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD).

More than 1.2 million people, or 4.5 percent of adults over age 40, are diagnosed with COPD in the UK, and the prevalence is rising. As the fourth leading cause of death in the UK, it is responsible for nearly 30,000 deaths per year.

Trustmarque and KenSci, a healthcare risk prediction platform provider, will work together to create the risk prediction platform. It will be tested using anonymised data across 2.1 million patients based in Glasgow and includes a physician decision support solution and COPD predictions.

An anonymised data set was provided by the NHS Greater Glasgow & Clyde Safe Haven under a data processing agreement. This captured all NHS Greater Glasgow & Clyde patients admitted via A&E with COPD over the past four years. The use of modern machine learning aims to help NHS Scotland better identify which patients are at the highest risk of pulmonary diseases. This will support NHS Scotland’s strategy to enable health teams to better target the best possible care and treatments for patients, helping them to reduce time in A&E, length of stay and to remain in the community rather than be admitted to hospital for prolonged periods of time.